|
Sudan Seasonal Monitor |
|||
|
|
|
|
|
Summary
After a period of good rainfall from late August to mid September, the later stages of the rainfall season (mid September-mid October) in northern Sudan were markedly drier than average, leading to unfavourable conditions to late planted crops specially in shallower soils. See Page 1-2
Vegetation patterns reflect the broad rainfall patterns above average vegetation in most mechanized farming regions arise from the delay in the usual vegetation cycle. The same feature (but less marked) is also present in traditional farming areas. The late season data confirms some regions as having had a poor season western North Kordofan (En Nahoud, Gebeish), northern areas of Kassala and border areas of South Kordofan-White Nile. See Page 2-3
Based on indicators for specific agricultural regions, the rainfed mechanized sector has improved production perspectives yields are expected to be on average but area planted is likely to have increased. The exception are areas such as Kassala and localised areas of White Nile which will face poor production prospects. Late planted crops are at higher risk where the late dryness coincides with flowering-grain formation stages. See Page 5-6
The perspectives for the traditional sector are very variable across Sudan. Some areas are doing well (most of Darfurs, Blue Nile-Sennar, eastern North Kordofan) while others will do poorly (Kassala, western North Kordofan). The later planted crops will be hit by late season dryness, specially in the poorer soils. See Pages 6-7
Pasture has recovered well with favourable indicators across most areas, in particular in western North Darfur. The exception is again in the East, Butana plains and Kassala, due to poor and late rainfall. See Pages 7-8
The irrigated sector is doing well, with increased area under cereal and no major problems in water supply. However, the flood irigation schemes of the Gash (Kassala) and Tokar (Red Sea) are not doing well, likely due to poor rainfall in Eritrea. See Page 8
September and Early October Rainfall in Sudan
|
a |
b |
|
Fig 1 (a) Toal Rainfall during September and (b) Same as a ratio of the average September rainfall |
|
The rainy season has entered its last stages and rainfall is ending across northern regions of Sudan. November will see rainfall limited to Southern Sudan and the Red Sea coast.
September rainfall has a mixed pattern with areas of well above average rainfall and areas of pronounced dry conditions (see Fig 1b). In Southern Sudan on or above average conditions were dominant such as in Central and East Equatoria and Jonglei; drier than average areas included the region of Unity, Warab, North Bahr-el-Ghazal and parts of West Bahr-el-Ghazal.
In Northern regions, drier than average conditions were seen in the southern half of South Kordofan, areas of White Nile, the border region between Darfur and Kordofan and the states of Gezira and Khartoum as well as western Gedaref. West Darfur and and western regions of North Darfur and parts of Kassala had more rainfall than usual, but the aveage amounts are usually small.
In this panorama it is worth noting that the second half of September was fairly dry and conditions remained so in early October (fig 2a). Except for a few places such as Damazine (Blue Nile), rainfall in this period across northern Sudan was mostly below 50% of the average.
|
a |
b |
|
Fig 2 (a) Rainfall in early October and total rainfall March-early October as a percentage of the average (b) |
|
So the improvement in conditions seen from mid August to mid September did not continue into this later stage of the season. Remaining crop development from mid September onwards is relying largely on stored soil moisture and as such late planted crops in sandy soils face poor production perspectives.
The seasonal rainfall pattern (compared to average, fig 2b) for northern Sudan will not change significantly anymore as the rains are nearly over. Regions of rainfall deficit can be clearly identified Northern parts of Gedaref, Kassala, Khartoum, River Nile, border areas between North Kordofan and North Darfur as well as South Kordofan and southern White Nile. Elsewhere, seasonal rainfall was mostly at average levels with only a few localised areas of better than average conditions.
Vegetation Status
Vegetation condition and development are assessed by means of the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) this is a satellite derived parameter which responds (almost) uniquely to vegetation.
In Southern Sudan, vegetation is predominantly below average across most of the territory, but differences are moderate and of little relevance. Eastern Equatoria is the exception as it benefited from above average September rainfall (see Fig 1b) leading to good pasture prospects. Upper Nile also shows favourable picture.
Overall, considering the pattern of rainfall and vegetation behaviour, agriculture and pasture performance in this region is expected to be at levels below those of the past three years which have been seasons of generally above average performance.
|
|
|
Fig 3 NDVI diference from average in mid September 2008. Yellows and reds represent below average vegetation development greens and blues represent above average vegetaion development |
In northern Sudan, there are clear patterns of above average vegetation for the time of the year, in Gedaref, southern Kassala, Sennar, eastern South Kordofan and western areas of North Darfur. Mostly this is linked to the delays in the start of the rains : the timing of crop and vegetation development was delayed, and so there is more/greener vegetation around than is usual for the time of the year (usually crops and vegetation should be starting to dry up in response to the end of the rains). Except for Darfur, the regions mentioned are dominated by mechanized agriculture and are precisely those where significant delays to the start of the growing season were verified.
Even accounting for this, the situation looks very favourable in western North Darfur (Kebkabyia, Saref Omra) and in the central regions of the state. The rest of the Darfur region is broadly on average though South Darfur shows scattered patterns of below average vegetation.
Below average vegetation patterns of significance can be seen in southwestern North Kordofan (Gubesh and En Nahoud) and these have persisted since early in the season and are clearly due to a fairly poor rainfall season. Neighbouring areas in North Darfur also show the same type of pattern.
A strong and persistent feature of below average vegetation can be seen in southwestern White Nile state bordering South Kordofan. This is one the major mechanized sorghum farming areas in White Nile and the evidence points to very poor yields.
In Kassala, the Gash flood irrigation scheme also displays pronounced below average vegetation. Local rainfall was poor to start with, but the rainfall in the catchment of this river inside Eritrea must have been also fairly poor. This provides poor perspectives for the flood crops in this scheme and in the Tokar delta near the Red Sea coast.
Crop and Pasture Development Perspectives
This section provides a more crop/pasture focused analysis, based on the data of previous sections and on plots showing rainfall and vegetation development profiles for specific land cover types corresponding to particular agricultural sectors large mechanized schemes, traditional agriculture, pasture areas.
Southern Sudan - Central Equatoria, Warap and Eastern Equatoria
|
a |
b |
|
Fig 4 a, b Rainall (RFE) and NDV for 2008 and Average for traditional agricuure regionsin (a) Central Equatoria stae (regionSW of Juba town) and (b) central Warap state (NW of Warap town) |
|
These locations show representative features of this years seasonal development in Southern Sudan above average early season rainfall leading to above average early vegetation development and early planting, but with the rest of the season characterized by moderately below average rainfall and a return of vegetation levels to values close to average.
In Central Equatoria (fig 4a), prospects are for an average season in terms of crop yield. Some high rainfall episodes are noticeable alternating with moderately below average rainfall periods. Northern areas of this state may not have not performed so well. In all, prospects are for average crop yield, but increases in production are expected as good early season rainfall, influx of returnees and development led to increases in area planted.
Technical Note - NDVI and Rainfall Profiles :
Central Warap state (largely growing sorghum and groundnut) also had a very good start to the season leading to increases in area planted; the situation then reverted to close to normal. Again, in general prospects are for average yields with increases in area planted leading to higher production.
|
|
|
Fig 4 a, b Rainall (RFE) and NDVI for 2008 and Average for pasture regions in East Equatoria |
In Eastern Equatoria, pasture conditions (in areas of Kapoeta and to the east) have much improved given good rainfall from July onwards, allowing vegetation levels to go above average, after a relatively poor May and June. Conditions are however below those of the last two-three years, a period marked by high rainfall and vegetation (in particular 2007).
Mechanized Agriculture Areas Blue Nile, White Nile, Gedaref and Kassala
Seasonal crop performance over mechanized farming areas across Sudan is variable even within the same state. A concern that applies across all areas is the impact of the low rainfall that has dominated most of northern Sudan since mid September onwards. This may hit crops in their flowering/grain filling stage, something which may not necessarily be reflected in vegetation index data. Water stored in the soil profile is the key factor.
|
a |
b |
|
c |
d |
|
Fig 5 a, b, c, d Rainfall (RFE) and NDVI for 2008 and Average for mechanized agriculture areas in (a) Blue Nile, (b) Whie Nile, (c) Gedaref and (d) Kassala. |
|
In this sector, the favourable cereal prices provided an incentive to increase the area under sorghum, whether by simple expansion or through converting from sesame to sorghum. This tendency is balanced by the rainfall pattern in the early stages of the season and the availability of finance.
Blue Nile so far is doing better than average, thanks to regular, abundant rainfall until mid September. Water stored in the soil profile and earlier planting than elsewhere, should see good production levels through at least average yields and likely increases in area.
Gedaref presents a similar situation to Blue Nile. Good production is still to be expected, since the more southern areas of the state (where yields are typically higher) have benefitted from good timely rainfall throughout the season and soil water should be at convenient levels.
In White Nile, the overall situation is at average levels, but there are contrasting situations : farming schemes in the southwest of the state (Megainis area) show much below average vegetation index values (fig 3), while the reverse is true for the schemes in the southeast (Tubun area). Significant increases in area planted are reported, a mix of expansion and reconversion from sesame. This may lead to increases in total production, even if yields turn out to be below average.
Kassala is doing noticeably worse due to late / below average rainfall. Here significantly lower than average yields are to be expected since there has only been some 3 dekads of significant rainfall, and the region has been mostly dry from early September. Even if area was expanded, this may not compensate for the low yields and production is expected to be below average.
Traditional Agriculture Blue Nile, White Nile, North Kordofan and North Darfur
Traditional agriculture areas across northern Sudan faced a complex season, with delayed rainfall starts and mid season dryness being compensated by later good rainfall performance, followed by a drier than average final stages; in broad terms traditional crop production faces average prospects, though with particular areas of concern in particular where late planting combined with early retreat of the rainfall.
|
a |
b |
|
c |
d |
|
Fig 6 a, b, c d Rainfall (RFE) and NDV or 2008 and Average for traditional agricultural areas in (a) Blue Nile (b) White Nile, (c) North Kordofan and (d) North Darfur. |
|
Blue Nile and areas of southeastern South Kordofan, as well as eastern and southern Sennar have done well given good regular rainfall with yields at or slightly above average levels. Western South Kordofan endured fairly dry conditions in mid July - mid August but negative impacts would be mitigated by the diversity of varieties and planting times.
In North Kordofan conditions are favourable for the larger traditional farms in the eastern areas of the state (see (c)) and for the central areas of the state, but the same is not the case for the western regions of En Nahoud and Gebeish.
White Nile (b) shows the problems faced by traditional farmers this season in the more northern and eastern regions delayed crop development, compensated by good late rainfall taking crop to average performance levels. Where planting was delayed, the late season dryness may impact further on production if it coincides with the grain filling stages.
The above also applies to traditional farmers in Gezira. In Kassala, like for the mechanized sector and pasture areas, the situation is poor, with delayed starts and early retreat of the rainfall leading to fairly poor yields and reduced production.
In North Darfur (and elsewhere in the region) conditions are average with some areas (see (d)) doing fairly well this is broadly representative of conditions across the Darfur region, though the areas bordering the Kordofan region (Um Kedada, eastern Ed Daein) may have been affected by the poor rainfall patterns.
So prospects and remaining risks are fairly variable from region to region. If the rainfall holds a little while longer, crop yields will be broadly on or moderately below average with similar prospects for crop production as no significant increases in area planted are expected. This corresponds to yield/production levels generally below those of the last 3 years.
Pastoral Areas - North Kordofan, Kassala, White Nile, North Darfur
Pasture areas present a mixed panorama across northern Sudan with broadly average/good conditions in the central and western areas of Sudan but poor perspectives in the East.
|
a |
b |
|
c |
d |
|
Fig 7 a, b, c, d Rainall (RFE) and NDVI for 2008 and Average for pasure areas in (a) North Kordofan (b) Kassala, (c) White Nile, and (d) North Darfur. |
|
In North Kordofan and White Nile after a short delay in early stages, pasture development followed at close to average levels thanks to good consistent rainfall from mid August onwards and seasonal pasture production is expected to reach average or moderately above average levels. This will be less than 2007 since last season saw record pasture production due to timely and abundant rainfall.
In North Darfur, pasture regions have done very well with above average performace, as a result of good consistent rainfall; in particular, the western areas of this state (Kebkabyia, Saraf Omra) have done better than the more northern central areas.
In Kassala, late and below average rainfall until mid August led to significant delays in pasture development and the early retreat of the rainfall did not allow enough recovery to take place. Pasture production will be significantly below average and the problem will be amplified by low levels of water resources for livestock.
Irrigated Areas Gezira and Halfa-el-Jadida (Kassala)
The irrigated sector has not benefited from rainfall as much as last year and crop levels developed according to average timings. Irrigation water availability posed no problems and with good late rainfall, conditions are fairly favourable across most schemes in particular in the larger Gezira Scheme.
Good yields and likely increases in area cultivated under cereal are expected to lead to above average production in the irrigated sector.
|
a |
b |
|
Fig 8 a, b Rainfall (RFE) and NDV for 2008 and Average for irrigated areas in (a) Halfa el Jadida and (b) Gezira. |
|
